Why the number moved since 2023
Two things happened between those quotes. Residential split systems built from January 1, 2025 use refrigerants with a GWP under 700, which in practice means R-454B or R-32. Both are A2L, mildly flammable, so the equipment ships with leak sensors, the handling rules changed, and somebody paid for the training and the new tools.
The second thing is metal. The 2025 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper raised what a coil, a cabinet and a line set cost, and manufacturers announced more than one price increase during 2025. The system on your truck this month was priced after all of that.
Say it once on the replacement page
Homeowners heard a version of this on the news, usually as "new AC units cost more now." Write the version that is true for your shop, one paragraph on the replacement page, with no apology in it.
Then answer the question that paragraph creates. The R-410A system in the side yard can still be serviced and recharged for years, and nothing about it became illegal on January 1. The replacement decision is the one it always was, about the age of the equipment and what the next repair costs.
The repair or replace rule goes on the page
Every shop has a rule the technicians use in the driveway. Put yours on the page in numbers. As an example: past 15 years old, replace; 10 to 15 years old with a repair quote past a third of a new system, replace; under 10 years, repair unless the compressor is gone.
Add the refrigerant line to the rule, because it moved one branch of it. A 12-year-old R-410A system with a leaking evaporator coil is worth pricing both ways now, and the technician should be able to say why standing in the driveway.
The monthly number and its terms
Where the page shows a monthly payment, the rate and the term print next to it, in the same size. An advertisement that quotes a payment carries the terms with it.
That number now does the work the federal credit did for three seasons. The 25C credit ended for equipment placed in service after December 31, 2025, so a page still promising up to $2,000 back is quoting a rule that has expired; the January cleanup covers the places that line hides.
Ranges by system type, with the month on them
Publish a range for each system type you sell in your metro and date it. "A 3-ton system in a Tampa house with usable ductwork runs $9,500 to $14,000 installed, April 2026." Reprice it every quarter and change the date when you do.
Two things come from a number on the page. The homeowner who cannot spend that much stops before a technician drives across town, and the AI answers have something to quote when somebody asks what a system costs in Tampa. A page with no figure on it sits that question out.
Late April through June is when the calendar fills
The ad accounts follow the install calendar. When the backlog passes two weeks, the replacement campaigns come down and repair keeps running. A homeowner quoted for a job you cannot start until July takes that quote to a contractor who can, and you paid for the call.
The timing comes from the metro. Phoenix fills in May and stays full into the fall; Columbus fills twice, once ahead of the cooling season and again when the furnaces start failing.
One more thing about this May. The rush to beat the December 31, 2025 deadline pulled some of this summer's replacements into last fall, so if the replacement campaigns come in slow, count the quotes issued against last May before you cut the budget.